Commercial Real Estate

Watch: Building a back-of-the-envelope CRE model in under 10 minutes

Shortcut Excel AI automates CRE property valuations, building direct cap and DCF models 5x faster than manual Excel work by automatically calculating NOI, rent rolls, and returns from uploaded property documents in just 3-6 minutes.

Building property valuations in Commercial Real Estate is essential to driving investment decisions within firms.

These valuations require meticulous attention to detail, pulling values across OM PDFs, rent roll summaries, and even standardizing arbitrary firm-wide preferences from meeting notes.

To successfully complete valuation models in Commercial Real Estate, brokers and real estate professionals must consolidate information across various war room documents to build a unified opinion on property investment decisions.

Here's how CRE valuation models are typically built and how you can use Shortcut to expedite your work.

PART 1: Building a Direct Cap Valuation with Shortcut

The first part of a direct cap valuation is calculating Total Effective Gross Revenue of a property through a sequence of calculations on rental revenue + other income (e.g. storage, parking) minus general vacancy and credit loss. From there, calculate Total Operating Expenses based on projected growth assumptions (e.g. grow all controllable expenses by 3.5% of T12) and find the Net Operating Income by subtracting Total Operating Expenses from Total Effective Gross Revenue.

Traditional Manual Process

Calculating the initial revenue values is typically done by using Rent Roll values to manually calculate Market Rent, Loss-to-Lease, Vacancy & Credit Loss, and Concessions.

Let's say you are evaluating a multi-family apartment property data with 4 floorplans, each with values for # of units, avg. SQFT, etc. In Excel, to calculate the market rent you'll multiply the value of the average market + addl. and # of units x 12 months for each floorplan type.

Given a Rent Roll spreadsheet, you would calculate market rent using a simple formula like=E6*B6*12 then pull the total to a different tab using ='Rent Roll Summary'!M10.

Calculating actual loss-to-lease would similarly take the average market + addl. minus average leased, then multiply by # units occupied x 12 months for each floorplan type.

With Shortcut: One Simple Prompt

Instead of manually calculating these values as you build a direct cap valuation, Shortcut can help through a simple prompt:

"use the rent roll values to calculate Market Rent, Actual Loss-to-Lease, Vacancy, and Rental Revenue for each floorplan. bring these totals to the Direct Cap tab and calculate the net operating income using broker assumptions and historicals"

In the prompt, you can add firm-specific preferences like:

  • • "set RUBS to $65/month/unit"
  • • "set turnover at $425 per unit, do not grow this controllable expense"
  • • "for property tax, set assessment value to 80% of $150MM and use mill rate of 1.2%"

Any of these preferences can be included in the initial prompt or in a follow-up prompt once Shortcut finishes the initial run.

Time Savings

Shortcut broke down the task into three steps and completed the full task in 3 minutes. Direct Capitalization modeling can take an experienced real estate professional anywhere from 15-45 minutes to build by hand in Excel.

Shortcut is 5x faster while maintaining human-grade accuracy.

In one prompt, Shortcut calculated:

Rent Roll Summary calculations:

  • • Market Rent: $14,980,200 (Units × Avg Market Rent × 12)
  • • Actual Loss-to-Lease: -$279,493 (Occupied Units × (Leased - Market) × 12)
  • • Actual Vacancy: -$631,140 (Vacant Units × Avg Market × 12)
  • • Rental Revenue: $14,069,567 (sum of above)

Direct Cap Pro Forma:

  • • Linked Market Rent, Loss-to-Lease, and Vacancy from Rent Roll totals
  • • Applied Broker assumptions for Other Income and all Operating Expenses
  • Net Operating Income: $10,766,389 (based on EGR of $14,021,812 less OpEx of $3,255,423)

All formulas are dynamic and will update automatically if underlying values change. Shortcut achieved full parity with the human-completed direct cap model.

PART 2: Building a DCF using Shortcut

Using the same property war room and input values, real estate acquisition professionals use Discounted Cash Flow analyses for a more thorough determination of property value and market/seller proposed purchase price.

After setting assumptions, the first step of a Discounted Cash Flow model is adjusting initial revenue values for Market Rent, Loss-to-Lease, Vacancy & Credit Loss, and Concessions from the Rent Roll to fit the set assumptions.

Note the formula structure that adjusts Market Rent based on rent roll values and assumptions:

='Rent Roll Summary'!M12*(1+$C$19)

These calculations include other underwriting assumptions based on your firm's preferences. For example, if we set concession assumptions to use 2% of the market rent in year 1, 1% in year 2, and 0% thereafter, we'd write formulas to multiply market rent by 0.02 in year 1, x 0.01 in year 2, etc. and set these to negative.

You would calculate this manually by writing =-I48*0.02 for year 1, change to =-J48*0.01 for year 2, and set the rest to zero.

With Shortcut: Comprehensive DCF Prompt

"use the assumptions to adjust rent roll values (Market Rent, Actual Loss-to-Lease, Vacancy, and Rental Revenue) for revenue in the DCF tab. calculate the total effective gross revenue, operating expenses, and net operating income from broker assumptions and historicals and project all values through year 11. complete the exit calculations for sale price, expense, and proceeds, then calculate unlevered cash flow (IRR) and equity multiple using the exit assumptions"

You can add firm-specific preferences like:

  • • "set concessions to 2% of market rent in year 1, 1% in year 2, and 0% thereafter"
  • • "set RUBS to $65/month/unit"
  • • "set turnover at $425 per unit, do not grow this controllable expense"
  • • "for property tax, set assessment value to 80% of $150MM and use mill rate of 1.2%"

Pro Tip: One easy way to consolidate your underwriting assumptions is to attach them as a PDF to your prompt.

DCF Time Savings

Shortcut broke down the task into seven steps and completed the full task in 6 minutes. Rough DCF modeling can take an experienced real estate professional anywhere from 30-60 minutes to build manually in Excel. More complex multi-asset portfolio structure DCFs can take up to 8 hours in total.

Shortcut is at least 5x faster while maintaining human-grade accuracy.

In one prompt, Shortcut calculated:

Acquisition:

  • • Purchase Price: $115.8M (5.10% cap rate)
  • • Closing Costs: $3.5M (3%)
  • • Total Investment: $119.3M

Performance:

  • • Year 1 NOI: $6.2M
  • • Year 10 NOI: $8.9M
  • • Year 11 NOI: $9.2M (used for exit valuation)

Exit (Year 10):

  • • Sale Price: $164.8M (5.60% cap rate - grown 5 bps/year)
  • • Sale Expense: $4.9M (3%)
  • • Net Proceeds: $159.9M

Returns:

  • Unlevered IRR: 8.46%
  • Equity Multiple: 1.97x
  • Profit: $116.0M

All formulas are dynamic and will update automatically if underlying values change. Shortcut achieved full parity with the human-completed DCF model.

Tips for CRE Valuation Modeling in Shortcut

Beyond the prompt, Shortcut helps you expedite your valuation modeling with a few key tools:

1. Import and Save Templates

When using the web app version of Shortcut, save standard company template files under the "New File" button in the upper right. You can prompt Shortcut to complete these files, update existing historicals, and add new data.

2. Attach Supporting Documents

Have extra war room files? Add up to 50+ PDFs, CSVs, JPEGs, PNGs, etc. to the prompt using the Attach feature. Shortcut will read values in these documents and include them in all relevant calculations.

3. Save Prompts in the Prompt Library

When you've perfected your prompt, save it to the Prompt Library to reuse on future model builds. This ensures consistency across property analyses.

4. Set Preferences

Add color codes, formatting rules, and universal instructions here (e.g. "always put assumptions in a separate tab"). These apply to all future models automatically.

5. Use "Ask Mode" to Learn More

Curious how Shortcut calculated a value or auditing your work? Toggling to "Ask Mode" allows you to ask the spreadsheet how each section was completed. Extra useful for junior CRE professionals trying to learn modeling for the first time!

Export Tip: If using the webapp version of Shortcut, use the Export File button to save as .xlsx files!

Key Takeaways

  • 3-6 Minutes - Build direct cap or DCF models vs 15-60 minutes manually
  • 5x Faster - Maintain human-grade accuracy with AI automation
  • Automatic Rent Roll - Calculate market rent, vacancy, loss-to-lease
  • NOI Calculations - Total revenue, expenses, and operating income
  • DCF Returns - IRR, equity multiple, and exit value automatically

Conclusion

Manual valuation model building in Excel no longer requires manually toggling between tabs to link cells, memorizing formulas, or meticulously copying number values from PDF offering memorandums.

With Shortcut, evaluating properties and investment opportunities is as simple as a single prompt.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can Shortcut handle complex rent roll structures?

Yes, Shortcut processes rent rolls with multiple floorplans, varying lease terms, market vs leased differentials, and occupancy rates. It automatically calculates market rent, loss-to-lease, and vacancy across all unit types.

How does Shortcut handle firm-specific assumptions?

Include your firm's underwriting standards directly in the prompt (RUBS pricing, turnover costs, tax assessment rules, etc.) or attach a PDF with your assumptions. Shortcut applies these consistently across all calculations.

Can I update the model if assumptions change?

Absolutely. All formulas are dynamic and update automatically when you change underlying values. You can also prompt Shortcut to "update rent growth from 3% to 5%" and it will adjust the entire model accordingly.

How accurate is Shortcut compared to manual modeling?

Shortcut achieves full parity with human-completed models, maintaining professional-grade accuracy. We benchmark against experienced CRE analysts to ensure calculations match industry standards for direct cap, DCF, and waterfall models.